ДАМУШЫ ЕЛДЕРДЕГІ ЖОБАЛАРДЫ БАСҚАРУ ТӘЖІРИБЕСІНДЕГІ МАҢЫЗДЫ ТАБЫС ФАКТОРЛАРЫ МЕН ТӘУЕКЕЛДЕРДІ ТАЛДАУ

Жобаларды басқару саласындағы зерттеулер жоғары табысты институционалдық ортада кеңінен дамыған. Алайда соңғы 15 жыл ішінде капиталға бай жобалық қызмет дамушы елдерге ауысты, мұнда стандартты басқару шеңберлері көбінесе өз тиімділігін көрсете бермейді. Бұл зерттеу 2015–2025 жж. аралығында жарияланған, 20 дамушы ел мен 8 көпұлтты ортадағы жобаларды басқарудағы маңызды табысқа жету факторлары (Critical Success Factors – CSF) мен тәуекелдерді қарастырған 41 рецензияланған эмпирикалық мақаланы жүйелі түрде талдауға негізделген. Шолу әдебиеттегі үш тұрақты олқылықты жоюға бағытталған: табысқа жетудің маңызды факторлары мен тәуекелдердің ұғымдық тұрғыдан ажыратылмауы, дамушы елдерге бағытталған зерттеулердің шектеулі болуы және елдер арасындағы тәжірибені біртұтас теориялық шеңберде біріктіретін интеграциялық синтездің болмауы. PRISMA хаттамасына сәйкес зерттеуде институционалдық теория мен контингенттік теорияға негізделген дедуктивті жіктеу тәсілі эмпирикалық материалды индуктивті кодтаумен ұштастырылды. Индуктивті кодтау нәтижесінде 22 маңызды табыс факторы және 21 тәуекел факторы анықталды. Олардың ішінен 8 маңызды табыс факторы мен 8 негізгі тәуекел факторы іріктеліп, екі теориялық көзқарас тұрғысынан синтезделді. Институционалдық теория саяси және институционалдық факторлардың басымдығын мәжбүрлеуші, нормативтік және миметикалық механизмдер, сондай-ақ институционалдық олқылықтар арқылы түсіндіреді. Ал контингенттік теория жобаның көлеміне, секторына және іске асыру әдісіне байланысты жүйелі айырмашылықтарды ескеруге мүмкіндік береді. Зерттеу нәтижелері жоба тәуекелдерінің сипаты жобаның көлемі ұлғайған сайын жүйелі түрде өзгеретінін көрсетті: шағын жобаларда негізгі тәуекелдер мүдделі тараптардың үйлесімділігімен байланысты болса, орта көлемді жобаларда институционалдық әлеует мәселелері алдыңғы орынға шығады, ал ірі жобаларда макроэкономикалық және саяси тәуекелдер басым болады. Зерттеу қорытындылары жоба менеджерлеріне, мемлекеттік институттарға және даму қаржы институттарына практикалық ұсыныстар ұсынады.

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