АНАЛИЗ КЛЮЧЕВЫХ ФАКТОРОВ УСПЕХА И РИСКОВ В ПРАКТИКЕ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ ПРОЕКТАМИ В РАЗВИВАЮЩИХСЯ СТРАНАХ

Исследования в области управления проектами широко развивались в институциональной среде стран с высоким уровнем дохода. Однако за последние 15 лет капиталоемкая проектная деятельность сместилась в сторону развивающихся стран, где стандартные рамки зачастую не дают ожидаемых результатов. За основу взят систематический анализ 41 рецензируемой эмпирической статьи, опубликованных в период с 2015 по 2025 гг. и посвященных критическим факторам успеха (КФУ) и рискам в управлении проектами в 20 развивающихся странах и 8 странах с многонациональной средой. В данном обзоре рассматриваются три постоянных пробела в литературе: концептуальное разделение КФУ и рисков, ограниченность исследований, посвященных развивающимся странам, и отсутствие интегративного межстранового обобщения в рамках единой теоретической концепции. В соответствии с протоколом PRISMA в статье применяется качественный контент-анализ, сочетающий дедуктивную категоризацию на основе институциональной теории и теории непредсказуемости с индуктивным кодированием эмпирического корпуса. В результате индуктивного кодирования было выявлено 22 КФУ и 21 фактор риска. 8 КФУ и 8 факторов риска были отобраны и проанализированы через призму двух теорий. Институциональная теория объясняет доминирование политических и институциональных факторов с помощью механизмов принуждения, нормативности и миметизма, а также концепции институциональных пробелов, в то время как теория контингенции учитывает систематические различия в зависимости от масштаба проекта, сектора и метода реализации. Результаты исследования показывают, что проектные риски систематически меняются в зависимости от масштаба: в небольших проектах они связаны с согласованностью действий заинтересованных сторон, в проектах среднего масштаба – с институциональным потенциалом, а в крупных проектах – с макроэкономическими и политическими рисками. Сделаны выводы для руководителей проектов

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