kaz29Вестник Казахстанско-Британского технического университетаHerald of the Kazakh-British Technical University1998-66882959-8109Казахстанско-Британский Технический Университет10.55452/1998-6688-2026-23-2-504-523kaz29-2929Research ArticleЭКОНОМИКА И БИЗНЕСECONOMY AND BUSINESSАНАЛИЗ КЛЮЧЕВЫХ ФАКТОРОВ УСПЕХА И РИСКОВ В ПРАКТИКЕ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ ПРОЕКТАМИ В РАЗВИВАЮЩИХСЯ СТРАНАХANALYZING CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS AND RISKS IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT PRACTICES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIEShttps://orcid.org/0009-0002-8449-9437АралбаеваЖ. М.AralbayevaZh. M.

Специалист по залоговому обеспечению.

Алматы

Collateral Officer.

Almaty

Zhamila.aralbayeva@adcb.comhttps://orcid.org/0009-0004-4341-2176БакдaулетА.BakdauletA.

Менеджер проекта.

Алматы

Project Manager.

Almaty

aknar.bakdaulet@gmail.comАО «Исламский Банк «ADCB»Казахстан“ADCB” Islamic Bank JSCKazakhstanИП «Dream Space Decoration»КазахстанDream Space Decoration CooperationKazakhstan202627062026232504523Copyright © Аралбаева Ж.М., Бакдaулет А., 20262026Аралбаева Ж.М., Бакдaулет А.Aralbayeva Z.M., Bakdaulet A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://vestnik.kbtu.edu.kz/jour/article/view/2929

Исследования в области управления проектами широко развивались в институциональной среде стран с высоким уровнем дохода. Однако за последние 15 лет капиталоемкая проектная деятельность сместилась в сторону развивающихся стран, где стандартные рамки зачастую не дают ожидаемых результатов. За основу взят систематический анализ 41 рецензируемой эмпирической статьи, опубликованных в период с 2015 по 2025 гг. и посвященных критическим факторам успеха (КФУ) и рискам в управлении проектами в 20 развивающихся странах и 8 странах с многонациональной средой. В данном обзоре рассматриваются три постоянных пробела в литературе: концептуальное разделение КФУ и рисков, ограниченность исследований, посвященных развивающимся странам, и отсутствие интегративного межстранового обобщения в рамках единой теоретической концепции. В соответствии с протоколом PRISMA в статье применяется качественный контент-анализ, сочетающий дедуктивную категоризацию на основе институциональной теории и теории непредсказуемости с индуктивным кодированием эмпирического корпуса. В результате индуктивного кодирования было выявлено 22 КФУ и 21 фактор риска. 8 КФУ и 8 факторов риска были отобраны и проанализированы через призму двух теорий. Институциональная теория объясняет доминирование политических и институциональных факторов с помощью механизмов принуждения, нормативности и миметизма, а также концепции институциональных пробелов, в то время как теория контингенции учитывает систематические различия в зависимости от масштаба проекта, сектора и метода реализации. Результаты исследования показывают, что проектные риски систематически меняются в зависимости от масштаба: в небольших проектах они связаны с согласованностью действий заинтересованных сторон, в проектах среднего масштаба – с институциональным потенциалом, а в крупных проектах – с макроэкономическими и политическими рисками. Сделаны выводы для руководителей проектов

Project management has primarily developed within high-income countries. However, over the last 15 years, capital-intensive projects have been shifting toward developing nations where conventional frameworks often underperform. Despite this, research on the critical success factors (CSFs) and risks influencing project outcomes in developing countries remains fragmented. This paper conducts a systematic literature review of 41 peer-reviewed articles published in the Scopus database in the last decade, covering 20 developing countries and 8 cross-country studies. Following the PRISMA protocol, this study identifies CSFs and risks in project management (PM) in developing countries through inductive review and deductive coding based on two theoretical lenses, namely, institutional and contingency theory. Furthermore, this paper analyzes the mechanisms and contextual dependency of these factors. The inductive findings identify 22 CSFs and 21 risk factors. In order to report the most critical ones, 8 CSFs and 8 risks are retained based on their frequency of occurrence. The results reveal that they form systematic corresponding pairs, with six of the eight CSFs directly mapping onto six risks. Moreover, institutional theory (IT) explains the dominance of external influences through coercive, normative, and mimetic mechanisms, as well as institutional voids, while the contingency theory (CT) shows variable outcomes across different project characteristics. Overall, the findings provide practical implications for project managers, policy makers and business organizations on managing projects in emerging countries. It is noted that project strategies should be adapted to project scale, with stakeholder-focused approaches in small projects, institutional building in medium projects, and macroeconomic and political risk management in large projects.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.