PREDICTION OF THE WORLD AND KAZAKHSTAN OIL PRICES: POLYNOMIAL TREND MODEL

In this article, studies conducted on forecasting world and Kazakhstan oil prices. The statistical data from the international stock exchanges FOREX, NASDAQ and the reporting data ofKMG used. Based on deep analysis authors attempted to predict futures prices for Kazakh oil using various  tools. The prediction of oil prices carried out through the analysis of previous periods with the definition of trend lines and trends in prices for several periods in advance. The authors used a polynomial trend model it is precisely with this model that the approximation  confidence value is as close to one as possible. This model confirms  the relationship between the period and the value of the price, has a polynomial character, and from all types of trend lines it convincingly describes  the original data. The main objective of this study is to identify global trends in the potential development of the global oil market in turbulent conditions based on analysis, assessment and prospects for the economic growth of the Kazakh economy in the next five years. The main objective of  this study is to identify global trends in the potential development of the global oil market in turbulent conditions based on analysis, assessment and prospects for the economic growth of  the Kazakh economy in the next five years. The study was conducted to determine the prospects for the development of the national economy, the level of which directly depends on geopolitical factors, the establishment of the world price, the volatility of the Kazakhstan oil price, macroeconomic and foreign policy factors that occur and determine world production, demand, consumption and as a result, the OPEC pricing policy, which has recently caused turbulent movement.

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