DISASTER FORECASTING

Disasters caused by natural phenomena are a source of tremendous social upheaval that can lead to mass suffering, loss of life, as well as significant material costs. The main factors in increasing the number of natural disasters and natural emergencies include global processes, examples of which are: population growth, degradation and environmental degradation, climate change and others. Obstruction of natural disasters is a key element of a global government strategy aimed at the sustainable development of the economy, as world experience clearly shows: the most effective way to reduce losses from natural, industrial and socio-economic accidents and disasters is to prevent them. The main basis for emergency prevention is monitoring and forecasting. Of course, forecasting emergencies and their socio-economic consequences is based on monitoring and forecasting the sources of emergencies. Accordingly, the fight against natural disasters should be based on the principle of the rational economic use of the territory, as well as forecasting and modeling of potential dangers with the implementation of preventive measures, which requires solving the urgent problem associated with the forecasting of natural disasters in the modern world.

The main purpose of this article is to create a brief overview of research and the current method of modernity associated with the prediction of natural disasters in order to prevent damage caused by it. The article substantiates the high relevance associated with the object of study, discusses the basic concepts and terms, and explores some forecasting methods that can prevent the potential danger of a natural nature.