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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">kaz29</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Вестник Казахстанско-Британского технического университета</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Herald of the Kazakh-British Technical University</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1998-6688</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2959-8109</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Казахстанско-Британский Технический Университет</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.55452/1998-6688-2023-20-2-103-114</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">kaz29-711</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>КОМПЬЮТЕРНЫЕ НАУКИ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>COMPUTER SCIENCE</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>ПОДХОДЫ НА ОСНОВЕ ВРЕМЕННЫХ РЯДОВ ДЛЯ ПОВЫШЕНИЯ ТОЧНОСТИ ПРОГНОЗА ВЕТРОЭНЕРГЕТИКИ</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>TIME SERIES-BASED APPROACHES FOR IMPROVING WIND POWER GENERATION FORECAST ACCURACY</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0009-0005-0003-669X</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Кнаятов</surname><given-names>Е. Н.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Knaytov</surname><given-names>Ye. N.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Кнаятов Ернар Нурланулы, Магистрант</p><p>ул. Толе би, 59, 050000, г. Алматы</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Knaytov Yernar Nurlanuly, Master student</p><p>59, Tole bi street, Almaty, 050000</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">y_knayatov@kbtu.kz</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1141-7595</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Акжалова</surname><given-names>А. Ж.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Akzhalova</surname><given-names>A. Zh.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Акжалова Асель Жолдасовна, Доктор, руководитель международных проектных групп, координатор центра SDG, профессор факультета информационных технологий, PhD по математическому моделированию (РК), PhD по компьютерным наукам</p><p>ул. Толе би, 59, 050000, г. Алматы</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Akzhalova Assel Zholdasovna, Dr., Head of International project groups, Coordinator of SDG center, Professor of IT Faculty, PhD in Math.Modelling (RK), PhD in Computer Science (King's College London,UK)</p><p>59, Tole bi street, Almaty, 050000</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">a.akzhalova@kbtu.kz</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8939-8948</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Садок</surname><given-names>Бен Яхия</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Sadok</surname><given-names>Ben Yahia</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Садок Бен Яхиа, Профессор</p><p>г. Таллин</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Sadok Ben Yahia, Professor</p><p>Tallinn</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">sadok.ben@taltech.ee</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru">Казахстанско-Британский технический университет<country>Казахстан</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en">Kazakh-British Technical University<country>Kazakhstan</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru">Таллинский университет технологий<country>Эстония</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en">Tallinn University of Technology<country>Estonia</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2023</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>02</day><month>07</month><year>2023</year></pub-date><volume>20</volume><issue>2</issue><fpage>103</fpage><lpage>114</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Кнаятов Е.Н., Акжалова А.Ж., Садок Б.Я., 2023</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2023</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Кнаятов Е.Н., Акжалова А.Ж., Садок Б.Я.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Knaytov Y.N., Akzhalova A.Z., Sadok B.Y.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://vestnik.kbtu.edu.kz/jour/article/view/711">https://vestnik.kbtu.edu.kz/jour/article/view/711</self-uri><abstract><p>данном исследовании мы представили подробный анализ и прогнозирование выработки электроэнергии на ветряных электростанциях в Германии с использованием моделей машинного обучения Lasso, LightGBM и CatBoost. Для обработки данных использовался метод Feature Engineering, который позволил извлечь более подробные данные с дат, использованные для улучшения качества моделей. С помощью расширенного анализа данных (Extensive Data Analysis, EDA) мы определяем и разрабатываюм запаздывающие и скользящие признаки из временного ряда производства энергии, исходя из того, что точные прогнозы могут значительно повысить стабильность энергетических систем, особенно в контексте растущей зависимости от возобновляемых источников энергии. Производительность каждой модели оценивается на основе показателей средней абсолютной ошибки (MAE), средней квадратичной ошибки (MSE) и корневой средней квадратичной ошибки (RMSE), при этом среди этих моделей CatBoost демонстрирует самую высокую точность по всем показателям. В заключение указываются возможности для дальнейших исследований, направленных на оптимизацию этих моделей и их адаптацию к другим регионам, подчеркивается комплексный и долгосрочный потенциал данного исследования в контексте энергетической сферы.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>This study provides a detailed analysis and prediction of power generation at wind farms in Germany using Lasso, LightGBM, and CatBoost machine learning models. Feature Engineering was used on the data, which allowed the extraction of more detailed data, which was used to improve the quality of the models. Through Extensive Data Analysis (EDA), the authors identify and develop lagged and moving features from the energy production time series, under the assumption that accurate predictions can significantly improve the stability of energy systems, especially in the context of increasing dependence on renewable energy sources. The performance of each model is evaluated based on the Mean Absolute Error(MAE), Mean Squared Error(MSE), and Root Mean Squared Error(RMSE) metrics, with CatBoost exhibiting the highest accuracy. In conclude, pointing to opportunities for further research aimed at optimizing these models and adapting them to other regions, emphasizing the comprehensive and long-term potential of this study in the context of energy field.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>энергия ветра</kwd><kwd>прогнозирование</kwd><kwd>временные ряды</kwd><kwd>Lasso</kwd><kwd>LightGBM</kwd><kwd>CatBoost</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>wind energy</kwd><kwd>forecasting</kwd><kwd>time series</kwd><kwd>Lasso</kwd><kwd>LightGBM</kwd><kwd>CatBoost</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Tibshirani R. 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