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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">kaz29</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Вестник Казахстанско-Британского технического университета</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Herald of the Kazakh-British Technical University</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1998-6688</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2959-8109</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Казахстанско-Британский Технический Университет</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.55452/1998-6688-2025-22-3-243-270</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">kaz29-2121</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>МАТЕМАТИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ СЕРДЕЧНО-СОСУДИСТОГО СТАРЕНИЯ С ПРИМЕНЕНИЕМ МАТЕМАТИЧЕСКОГО МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЯ</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>PREDICTION OF CARDIOVASCULAR AGING USING MATHEMATICAL MODELING</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0009-0003-8553-5353</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Сулейменова</surname><given-names>М. У.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Suleimenova</surname><given-names>M.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>магистр</p><p>г. Алматы</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>M.Ed.</p><p>Almaty</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">madekin940@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1548-7061</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Манапова</surname><given-names>А. К.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Manapova</surname><given-names>A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>магистр</p><p>г. Алматы </p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>M.Sc.</p><p>Almaty</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">manapova.a.k.math@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2452-854X</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Абзалиев</surname><given-names>К. Б.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Abzaliyev</surname><given-names>K.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>д. мед. н.</p><p>г. Алматы</p><p> </p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Dr.Med.Sc.</p><p>Almaty</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">abzaliev_kuat@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0009-0004-9802-0129</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Абзалиева</surname><given-names>С. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Abzaliyeva</surname><given-names>S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>к.мед.н.</p><p>г. Алматы </p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Cand.Med.Sc.</p><p>Almaty </p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">abzalieva.symbat@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8253-7474</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Шоманов</surname><given-names>А. С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Shomanov</surname><given-names>A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>PhD</p><p>г. Астана </p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>PhD</p><p>Astana</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">adai.shomanov@nu.edu.kz</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2690-3588</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Чен</surname><given-names>С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Chen</surname><given-names>S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>PhD</p><p>г. Шанхай </p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>PhD</p><p>Shanghai</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">simingchen3@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-4"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru">Казахский национальный университет им. аль-Фараби<country>Казахстан</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en">Al-Farabi Kazakh National University<country>Kazakhstan</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru">Институт математики и математического моделирования<country>Казахстан</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-3"><aff xml:lang="ru">Назарбаев университет<country>Казахстан</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en">Nazarbayev University<country>Kazakhstan</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-4"><aff xml:lang="ru">Фуданьский университет<country>Китай</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en">Fudan University, Shanghai<country>China</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2025</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>27</day><month>09</month><year>2025</year></pub-date><volume>22</volume><issue>3</issue><fpage>243</fpage><lpage>270</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Сулейменова М.У., Манапова А.К., Абзалиев К.Б., Абзалиева С.А., Шоманов А.С., Чен С., 2025</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2025</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Сулейменова М.У., Манапова А.К., Абзалиев К.Б., Абзалиева С.А., Шоманов А.С., Чен С.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Suleimenova M., Manapova A., Abzaliyev K., Abzaliyeva S., Shomanov A., Chen S.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://vestnik.kbtu.edu.kz/jour/article/view/2121">https://vestnik.kbtu.edu.kz/jour/article/view/2121</self-uri><abstract><p>В данном исследовании представлен инновационный подход к прогнозированию риска сердечно-сосудистых заболеваний (ССЗ) на основе комплексного анализа клинических, иммунологических и биохимических маркеров с использованием методов математического моделирования и машинного обучения. Исходные данные включают показатели гуморального и клеточного иммунитета (CD59, CD16, IL-10, CD14, CD19, CD8, CD4 и др.), цитокины и маркеры сердечно-сосудистых заболеваний, цитокины и маркеры воспаления (TNF, GM-CSF, CRP), факторы роста и ангиогенеза (VEGF, PGF), белки, участвующие в апоптозе и цитотоксичности (перфорин, CD95), а также показатели функции печени, почек, окислительного стресса и сердечной недостаточности (альбумин, цистатин C, N-концевой про-B-тип натрийуретического пептида (NT-proBNP), супероксиддисмутазы (SOD), С-реактивного белка (CRP), холинэстеразы (ChE), холестерина и скорости клубочковой фильтрации (GFR)). Также учитываются клинические и поведенческие факторы риска: артериальная гипертензия (АГ), перенесенный инфаркт миокарда (ПИМ), аортокоронарное шунтирование (АКШ) и/или стентирование, ишемическая болезнь сердца (ИБС), фибрилляция предсердий (ФП), атриовентрикулярная блокада (АВ-блокада), сахарный диабет (СД), а также образ жизни (курение, употребление алкоголя, уровень физической активности), образование, индекс массы тела (ИМТ). В исследование было включено 52 пациента в возрасте 65 лет и старше. На основе полученных клинических, биохимических и иммунологических данных с помощью методов математического моделирования и машинного обучения была разработана модель прогнозирования риска преждевременного сердечно-сосудистого старения. Целью исследования была разработка прогностической модели, позволяющей на ранней стадии выявлять предрасположенность к развитию ССЗ и их осложнений. Для решения задачи прогнозирования были использованы численные методы математического моделирования, в том числе методы Рунге–Кутта, Адамса–Башфорта и обратного направления Эйлера, что позволило с высокой точностью описать динамику изменений биомаркеров и состояния пациентов во времени. Наибольшую ассоциацию с процессами старения продемонстрировали HLA-DR (50%), CD14 (41%) и CD16 (38%). ИМТ коррелировал с фактором роста плаценты (37%). Скорость клубочковой фильтрации положительно коррелировала с физической активностью (47%), тогда как активность SOD отрицательно коррелировала с ней (48%), что отражает снижение антиоксидантной защиты. Полученные результаты позволяют повысить точность прогнозирования сердечно-сосудистого риска и сформировать персонализированные рекомендации по профилактике и коррекции его развития.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>This study presents an innovative approach to predicting the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) based on a comprehensive analysis of clinical, immunological and biochemical markers using mathematical modeling and machine learning methods. The initial data include indicators of humoral and cellular immunity (CD59, CD16, IL-10, CD14, CD19, CD8, CD4, etc.), cytokines and markers of cardiovascular diseases, cytokines and inflammation markers (TNF, GM-CSF, CRP), growth and angiogenesis factors (VEGF, PGF), proteins involved in apoptosis and cytotoxicity (perforin, CD95), as well as indicators of liver function, kidney function, oxidative stress and heart failure (albumin, cystatin C, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), superoxide dismutase (SOD), C-reactive protein (CRP), cholinesterase (ChE), cholesterol and glomerular filtration rate (GFR)). Clinical and behavioral risk factors are also taken into account: arterial hypertension (AH), previous myocardial infarction (PMI), coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and/or stenting, coronary heart disease (CHD), atrial fibrillation (AF), atrioventricular block (AV block), diabetes mellitus (DM), as well as lifestyle (smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity level), education, body mass index (BMI). The study included 52 patients aged 65 years and older. Based on the obtained clinical, biochemical and immunological data, a model for predicting the risk of premature cardiovascular aging was developed using mathematical modeling and machine learning methods. The aim of the study was to develop a prognostic model that allows for early detection of a predisposition to the development of CVD and its complications. To solve the forecasting problem, numerical methods of mathematical modeling were used, including the Runge-Kutta, Adams-Bashforth and backward Euler methods, which made it possible to describe the dynamics of changes in biomarkers and patients' condition over time with high accuracy. The greatest association with aging processes was demonstrated by HLA-DR (50%), CD14 (41%) and CD16 (38%). BMI correlated with placental growth factor (37%). Glomerular filtration rate positively correlated with physical activity (47%), while SOD activity negatively correlated with it (48%), which reflects a decrease in antioxidant protection. The obtained results make it possible to increase the accuracy of cardiovascular risk forecasting and to formulate personalized recommendations for the prevention and correction of its development.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>биомаркеры</kwd><kwd>старение сердечно-сосудистой системы</kwd><kwd>машинное обучение</kwd><kwd>математическое моделирование</kwd><kwd>старение иммунной системы</kwd><kwd>прогнозирование</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>biomarkers</kwd><kwd>cardiovascular aging</kwd><kwd>machine learning</kwd><kwd>mathematical modeling</kwd><kwd>immune aging</kwd><kwd>forecasting</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">World Health Organization. Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) [Electronic resource]. (2023). 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